Rosemary's Thoughts: More info on the NIE

Thursday, December 6, 2007

More info on the NIE

Posted by Rosemary Welch at 12/06/2007 04:59:00 PM Labels: g-News, gov't, open tb

Days after the initial release of the National Intelligence Estimate, there are yet more questions and articles. As I am not an 'expert' in this field, I would like to take this time to provide yet more 'expert' input.

A gentleman has left me a comment querying into the veracity of my last post. He was rather kind, while he may disagree with me, so I am going to attempt to try to satisfy his search for answers to back up my assertions. Here is his comment:

Try as I might, I couldn't find a fact to back up your assertion that the intelligence community is anti-Bush. And even if these 16 separate intelligence agencies are anti-Bush, maybe it is because they are anti-bulls#*t and pro-American.

I have decided not to post his name, because I do not wish to be unfair to him. I only wish to clear up matters.

First I have Decoding the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program, written by Prof. Gerald M. Steinberg.

While the NIE states that the U.S. intelligence community has "high confidence" that the Iranians halted their nuclear weapons program in 2003, it also states that it has only "moderate confidence" that Tehran has not restarted the program.¹ In contrast, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has said that while it is "apparently true that in 2003, Iran stopped pursuing its military nuclear program for a certain period of time," nonetheless, he adds that "in our estimation, since then it is apparently continuing with its program to produce a nuclear weapon."² [Continue reading.]

Since this is a Jewish intelligence source, I shall also introduce another. This person everyone is well familiar with, because you either like him or him. No matter. He used to work at the State Department, and he also worked at the UN.

This is what Ambassador John Bolton has to say about the NIE:

The Flaws In the Iran Report.

The real differences between the NIEs are not in the hard data but in the psychological assessment of the mullahs' motives and objectives. The current NIE freely admits to having only moderate confidence that the suspension continues and says that there are significant gaps in our intelligence and that our analysts dissent from their initial judgment on suspension. This alone should give us considerable pause. [Continue reading.]

John R. Bolton, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, is the author of "Surrender Is Not an Option: Defending America at the United Nations and Abroad." He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

There are five very important points that he makes in this Washington Post editorial. He knows intelligence. He is an expert. I suggest you read this short article.

Maybe you would like to hear from a trusted Democrat, Sen. Lieberman?

CNBC "Kudlow & Company" Interview with Senator Joe Lieberman (ID-CT)
Interviewer: Larry Kudlow
Subject: Iran's Nuclear Program and the National Intelligence Estimate.

MR. KUDLOW: Today's blockbuster headline from the New Intelligence Estimate says Iran stopped making nukes in 2003. But Senator Joe Lieberman, independent Democrat from Connecticut, told me that Iran is still a very dangerous place. Take a look.

(Begin videotaped interview.)

SEN. LIEBERMAN: Well, what I make of it is that there's some encouraging news in this National Intelligence Estimate, which is that the Iranians apparently have stopped one part of their nuclear weapons program. But the headline you just read shows the danger here, which is that people will reach a conclusion that all of our concern about Iran building nuclear weapons was misplaced, it's over, there's no problem. If you read this report, this intelligence report, you see that that's not true. It says very clearly Iran has both the capacity and intention to build a nuclear weapon. And in fact, they are focused now on the first, most important thing that they need to do, which is to enrich uranium. So this is not cause for complacency. There's still a lot about what Iran is doing that should concern us and encourage us to keep the economic and diplomatic pressure on them. [You must be registered to read the rest. I am not.]

Please read them all. I could not even start to summarize all the data forth coming. This is a a link to keep on eye on the ME from Irsael Intelligence, and this is a great link to gather information on Iran. After you have read the links I have provided, I rest my case. I hope this satisfatory. I do not wish to mislead anyone who may read my posts. Thank you, and have a great day.